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Premier Foods uses its loaf

RESULT: A strong performance from Hovis drives a trading turnaround at Premier Foods
February 16, 2010

"We've had a pretty good 2009 in the context of a pretty competitive and recessionary market," said Robert Schofield, chief executive of Premier Foods, as the group outlined its plans for future development of the business alongside better than expected profits. Trading profit grew 4.5 per cent to £323m, slightly better than had been expected, thanks to an improved sales mix and cost savings which offset higher promotional and input costs. 

IC TIP: Hold at 33p

The strong performance last year was driven by group's branded products, which saw sales climb 6.5 per cent to £1.7bn and gain an aggregate 50 basis points of market share. Mr Schofield said that, having spent several years acquiring neglected brands and integrating these acquisitions, Premier was now in the organic growth phase of development and would get "back to basics" in managing its brand portfolio.

Although Premier's strategy remains unchanged, it detailed how the group planned to push growth of its key 'drive' brands, such as star-performer Hovis, which saw sales climb 15.2 per cent to £349m over the year. Mr Schofield pointed to Hovis as an example of the group's strategy in action. "We took over a Hovis brand that was ailing and losing brand share. It took as a year after ownership to fix the brand," said Mr Schofield, pointing to improvements to the product and the range, and the use of high profile advertising to re-ignite the relationship with consumers.

However, the focus on driving its brands did lead to a slip in the non-branded segment, where the lower pricing of branded products saw consumers "shopping out" of own brands. That trend was particularly distinct in the bread category where gains made by Hovis meant a 16.5 per cent drop in Premier's own-brand bread sales. "Brands have won in the marketplace and retailer own-label brands have gone backwards," said Mr Schofield, although he emphasised the importance of own-label in maintaining retailer relationships.

Prior to these results, broker RBS expected underlying 2010 pre-tax profits of £190m and EPS of 5.7p (from £168m and 5.8p in 2009).

PREMIER FOODS (PFD)

ORD PRICE:33pMARKET VALUE:£ 791m
TOUCH:33-34p12-MONTH HIGH:47pLOW: 21p
DIVIDEND YIELD:NILPE RATIO:17
NET ASSET VALUE:44p*NET DEBT:128%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)Earnings per share (p)Dividend per share (p)
20050.7951.834.014.3
2006**0.8459.012.712.0
2007**2.13-77.6-8.26.5
20082.60-404.8-41.3nil
20092.6646.71.9nil
% change+2---

*Includes intangible assets of £2.5bn or 103p a share

**Restated

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