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Novae bounds ahead

RESULTS: Novae is making solidly underwriting profits and returns on equity are soaring - leaving the shares too cheaply rated
March 11, 2013

A more benign claims year for Lloyd's insurer Novae (NVA) allowed the group's combined ratio (of claims to premiums) to improve from 2011's loss-making 101.5 per cent to a solidly profitable 90.5 per cent, despite a $25m-$30m (£17m-£20m) hit from Hurricane Sandy.

IC TIP: Buy at 475p

A reasonably firm premium rate backdrop has helped, too. Overall the group's premium rates rose 1 per cent in the year with catastrophe-affected lines still seeing rates rise solidly - the group's property reinsurance rates rose 6 per cent, for instance. That offset flat rates in some lines, such as marine & energy or agriculture reinsurance, and softening rates elsewhere - rates on the marine & aviation account, for example, fell 4 per cent. The group's investment return, meanwhile, improved to 2.2 per cent from 1.8 per cent last year - that portfolio remains almost entirely focused on safe looking bonds and cash. Moreover, Novae's return on equity has now improved to an impressive 17. 6 per cent, up from just 8 per cent back in 2010.

Broker Canaccord expects full-year pre-tax profit of £45.7m, for 2013 giving EPS of 53.9p (from 43p in 2012) and net tangible assets (NTA) of 493.5p.

NOVAE (NVA)

ORD PRICE:475pMARKET VALUE:£306m
TOUCH:475-479p12-MONTH HIGH:475pLOW: 340p
DIVIDEND YIELD:3.8%†PE RATIO:11
NET ASSET VALUE: 468pCOMBINED RATIO:90.5%

Year to 31 DecNet premiums (£m)Pre-tax profit (£m)Investment income (£m)Dividend per share (p)†
200825840.250.011.3*
20093044.2031.012.4
201043135.125.415.7
2011532-6.3021.018.0
201251639.925.818.0
% change-3-733+23+20

Ex-div: 17 Apr

Payment: 9 May

Capacity owned: 100 per cent

†Adjusted for December 2010's eight-for-nine share consolidation

*Excludes 4.5p special dividend