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Next week's economics: 16-20 Dec

Next week's economics: 16-20 Dec
December 13, 2013
Next week's economics: 16-20 Dec

Although official retail sales numbers on Thursday could show that sales volumes rose in November, this would merely reverse October's drop, leaving sales in the last two months below the previous two. This would be consistent with surveys by the BRC and CBI, both of which have recently pointed to a slowdown on the high street.

We'll see two reasons for this next week. Wednesday's numbers are likely to show wage inflation is less than 1 per cent, implying that wages are still falling in real terms. And Friday's GDP data could show that the strong rise in consumer spending in the third quarter was caused by a drop in the savings ratio - something that is not sustainable for long.

However, this slowdown doesn't mean the general economy is doing badly. Monday's CBI survey is likely to show that output growth and orders in manufacturing at close to 18-year highs. And Wednesday's figures could report another drop in the unemployment rate, to 7.5 per cent - although there are almost as many people out of the labour force who would like a job as there are officially unemployed.

Such mass unemployment helps explain why wage inflation is so low. And thanks to this, so too is price inflation. Tuesday's numbers should show CPI inflation around last month's 2.2 per cent - and much lower if administered prices such as university fees are excluded - while manufacturing output price inflation is around 1 per cent, depressed by lower raw materials prices.

There will, however, be a couple of reasons to worry about whether the UK economy can continue to grow well. One is that Friday's GDP data is likely to show that companies' retained profits still far exceed their capital spending, which implies they are still reluctant to invest.

The other is that the overseas environment isn't supportive of UK growth. Purchasing managers' surveys on Monday are likely to show that the eurozone is only just growing, and that there's been no pick up in the pace of the recovery since the late summer - although ZEW and Ifo surveys should paint a rosier picture in Germany.

Nor are things much better in the US. Official figures on Monday are likely to show only a small rise in industrial production last month, while surveys by the New York and Philadelphia Feds could show manufacturing slowing down.

The most important number for equity investors, though, will be on foreign buying of US equities, reported in Monday's capital flows data published by the US Treasury. In recent years, this has been a great lead indicator of equity returns, and recent figures point to decent rises in shares in the next 12 months.

Watch out too for Wednesday's FOMC meeting. There's a chance it could start to taper QE - although most economists don't expect this until the new year.