As I pointed out in that February article, the financial performance for the 12 months to end January 2016 would not make for a great read given that the company disappointed in the first half. But if you breakdown the trading periods, then it’s apparent that the improvement in trading I was anticipating has come to fruition. In fact, French Connection reported a pre-tax profit of £3.8m on £88m of revenue in the second half, quite a turnaround from a first half when it posted a loss of £7.9m on revenue of £75m.
Moreover, sales were 6 per cent ahead in French Connection’s UK and European retail business during the full price sales period in the second half. Gross margins were stable in retail over the course of the 12 month trading period too, but significantly this masks an improvement in the second half. As I stressed when I initiated coverage, a turnaround in the retail operations is key to returning French Connection to profitability. A slimming down of the store estate – 13 non-contributing shops were closed in the 12 month period – will also see the loss-making Regent Street flagship store close later this month. The company will receive a £2.4m cash payment for surrendering the lease on that property which will bolster its net funds position of £14m at the end of January 2016. True, that’s down on net funds of £23.2m a year earlier, reflecting the trading losses, but it’s still a useful sum in relation to a company with a market capitalisation of £41m.
And let’s not forget that both French Connection’s wholesale operations, and licensing income, are very profitable generating a combined £20.6m of operating profit last year and easily cover group overheads of £9.3m. So, if the positive trading trends from the second half can continue into the new financial year, then a sustained move back into profitability could be on the cards. Bearing this in mind, chief executive and chairman Stephen Marks points out that wholesale orders for French Connection’s Summer 16 collection are ahead of the same period last year, and the initial reaction from customers to the Winter 16 collection has been “very positive”. Also, the first half comparatives from last year are very soft, so I would anticipate French Connection reporting positive like-for-like sales at the first quarter trading update next month. That’s well worth considering for anyone taking a bearish stance on the shares which have edged down slightly since yesterday's results.
I also feel that yesterday’s appointment of Lee Williams as group finance director is a sound choice. He is currently director of finance at online retailer ASOS (ASOS), a position he has held for 15 months, having previously been chief financial officer at online furniture retailer Worldstores. His experience in the digital space is a very useful addition to French Connection’s online retail offering, a segment of the business that currently accounts for 15 per cent of the company’s total turnover of £164m.
The bottom line is that the company’s equity is currently being valued on just 0.16 times annual sales once you adjust for the cash pile worth £14m, a valuation that will prove a bargain basement buy if the board under Mr Marks' leadership can successfully execute a return to profitability. Moreover, given that the company books a non-cash annual depreciation charge of £1.6m in its income statement, this means that it will start generating cash profits and positive cashflow well before it declares IFRS pre-tax profits.
Chart watchers will also have noted that a close at 49p or above will take out February’s price high and open the door for a rally in the share price towards 60p and beyond given there is little in the way of technical resistance. I am willing to bet on that possibility given the improving fundamentals and continue to rate French Connection’s shares a value buy on a bid-offer spread of 42p to 42.75p. Buy.
Please note that I have written two columns today, and eight in total so far this week, all of which are listed below.
MORE FROM SIMON THOMPSON...
I have written articles on more than 90 companies this year:
■ Grainger: Buy at 243.5p, target 280p; Dart: Take profits at 580p; Crystal Amber: Hold at 159p; Redde: Take profits at 203p; Burford Capital: Run profits at 196.5p; Renew Holdings: Run profits at 404p; Plethora Solutions: Speculative buy at 4.5p ('Stock check', 5 Jan 2016)
■ Elegant Hotels: Buy at 118p, target price 130p to 135p ('Check in for a profitable stay', 6 Jan 2016)
■ Safestyle: Run profits at 272p ahead of pre-close statement on 25 Jan 2016 ('Clear cut gains', 6 Jan 2016)
■ Epwin: Run profits at 143p, new target 170p ('Epwin on the acquisition trail', 6 Jan 2016)
■ GLI Finance: Recovery buy at 37.5p ('GLI shelves fundraise and its chief executive', 6 Jan 2016)
■ LXB Retail Properties: Buy at 97.5p, new six-month target 120p; Urban&Civic: Buy at 286.5p, target 325p; Conygar: Buy at 172p, target 200p ('Hot property, 7 Jan 2015)
■ Somero Enterprises: Buy at 139p, target 185p; 1pm: Buy at 70p, target 82p; First Property: Run profits at 53p; Avation: Buy at 145p, target 200p ('Small-cap value plays', 11 Jan 2016)
■ 32Red: Run profits at 147p; Netplay TV: Buy at 7p ('Chipping in', 12 Jan 2016)
■ Cambria Automobiles: Buy at 87p, new target 95p; Vertu Motors: Buy at 76p, target range 85p to 90p ('Motoring ahead', 12 Jan 2016)
■ Global Energy Development: Hold at 24p ('Cash rich, but unloved', 12 Jan 2016)
■ KBC Advanced Technologies: Bank profits and sell in the market at 183p ('Tech watch, 13 Jan 2015)
■ Sanderson: Buy at 75p, target range 85p to 90p ('Tech watch, 13 Jan 2015)
■ Trakm8: Buy at 300p, new target 400p ('Tech watch, 13 Jan 2015)
■ Amino Technologies: Buy at 120p, new target range 155p to 160p ('Amino has the ammunition', 14 Jan 2015)
■ easyHotels: Buy at 89p, initial target 100p ('easyHotels ramps up expansion', 14 Jan 2015)
■ Stanley Gibbons: Hold at 58p ('Stanley Gibbons fundraise', 14 Jan 2015)
■ Miton: Buy at 28p, target 35p; Moss Bros: Buy at 97p, target 120p to 130p; Bioquell: Buy at 140p, minimum target 170p; UTV Media: Trading buy at 184p ('An awesome foursome', 18 Jan 2015)
■ Equity market strategy ('Bear Market signals', 25 Jan 2015)
■ STM: Buy at 47p, target 80p; Stadium: Trading buy at 103p; Fairpoint: Run profits at 150p, target range 200p to 220p ('Exploiting market anomalies', 1 Feb 2015)
■ Character: Buy at 505p, target 600p; 1pm: Buy at 67p, target 82p; and Entu: Hold at 68p ('A trio of small-cap plays', 2 Feb 2016)
■ Inland: Buy at 83p; Henry Boot: Buy at 220p, target 260p; FTSE 350 housebuilding sector: Trading buy ('Playing the housing market', 3 Feb 2016)
■ Flowtech Fluidpower: Buy at 109p ('Undervalued and ripe for a re-rating', 4 Feb 2016)
■ Safestyle: Run profits at 253p ('Awaiting news on a cash return', 4 Feb 2016)
■ Bowleven; Volvere; French Connection; Bioquell; Juridica; Mind + Machines; Oakley Capital; Gresham House; Gresham House Strategic; Walker Crips ('Bargain shares', 4 Feb 2016)
■ AB Dynamics; Inspired Capital; H&T; Netplay TV; Mountview Estates; Crystal Amber; Arbuthnot Banking; Record; Pittards; Stanley Gibbons ('How the 2015 Bargain share portfolio fared', 4 Feb 2016)
■ IS Solutions: Buy at 120p, target 150p ('Big data, big profits', 8 February 2016)
■ 32Red: Run profits at 133p, easyHotel: Run profits at 99p; Burford Capital: Run profits at 230p; Bilby: Buy at 136.5p ('Hitting record highs', 9 February 2016)
■ BP Marsh & Partners : Buy at 157p, new target 190p ('Primed for investment gains', 10 February 2016)
■ Gama Aviation: Hold at 270p ('Gama hits guidance', 10 February 2016)
■ Bloomsbury Publishing: Buy at 150p, target range 175p to 185p ('Book into a trading play', 11 February 2016)
■ PV Crystalox Solar: Speculative buy at 8.2p ('Lights brighten at PV Crystalox Solar', 11 February 2016)
■ Alpha Real Trust: Buy at 80p, target 105p ('High yield property play', 15 February 2016)
■ LMS Capital: Buy at 68p; Leaf Clean Energy: Await news on Invenergy; Eurovestech: Sell at 7p ('Investment company watch', 16 February 2016)
■ GLI Finance: Buy at 31p ('GLI Finance review offers potential for gains', 17 February 2016)
■ Trifast: Buy at 112p, target 140p ('Engineered for a higher rating', 17 February 2016)
■ 600 Group: Sell at 10p ('600 Group warns', 17 February 2016)
■ Marwyn Value Investors: Buy at 190p ('Undervalued, cash rich investment, 18 February 2016)
■ Henry Boot: Buy at 220p; Moss Bros: Buy at 102p, target range 120p to 130p; Creston: Sell at 103p; Minds + Machines: Buy at 8.5p ('Changing places', 22 February 2016)
■ CareTech: Buy at 245p, target price 300p ('Asset backed, lowly rated property play', 23 February 2016)
■ WH Ireland: Buy at 90p, medium-term target 120p ('WH Ireland hit by FCA fine', 23 February 2016)
■ Stanley Gibbons: Sell at 44p ('Stanley Gibbons rescue equity raise', 23 February 2016)
■ Gresham House: Buy at 325p ('Gresham House spruces up forestry deal', 24 February 2016)
■ Avation: Buy at 140p ('Aircraft deliveries mask Avation's lift off', 24 February 2016)
■ Tristel: Take profits at 125p ('Investors spooked by bugbuster's sales slowdown', 24 February 2016)
■ Town Centre Securities: Buy at 305p, target price 350p ('Property income play with capital upside', 25 February 2016)
■ Capital & Regional: Buy at 60.25p, target 66.5p to 70p ('Short-term trading buy', 29 February 2016)
■ Cambria Automobiles: Buy at 83p, target 95p; Vertu Motors: Buy at 71.75p, target 85p to 90p ('Lowly rated car dealers motoring back', 7 March 2016)
■ Sanderson: Buy at 80p, target 90p ('Tapping into cloud based profits', 8 March 2016)
■ H&T: Buy at 195p ('A golden opportunity', 8 March 2016)
■ Software Radio Technology: Buy at 25p, target 40p ('Software Radio surges on huge contract win', 9 March 2016)
■ STM: Buy at 55p, target 80p ('Lowly rated, cash rich pensions play', 10 March 2016)
■ Plethora Solutions: Take profits at HK$0.079 ('On the takeover trail', 14 March 2016)
■ Somero Enterprises: Buy at 150p; target 185p ('A solid buy', 15 March 2016)
■ 32Red: Run profits at 150p ('32Red in the money, 15 March 2016)
■ Communisis: Sell at 44p ('Patience running short at Communisis', 15 March 2016)
■ Global Energy Development: Sell at 27p ('Global Energy plays waiting game', 15 March 2016)
■ Raven Russia: Sell at 30p ('Raven Russia battens down the hatches', 15 March 2016)
■ Stadium: Buy at 122p, new target price 150p (‘Switch on for bumper gains’, 16 March 2016)
■ French Connection: Buy at 42.75p (‘Return to profitability looms for chic operator’, 16 March 2016)
■ Simon Thompson's book Stock Picking for Profit can be purchased online at www.ypdbooks.com, or by telephoning YPDBooks on 01904 431 213 and is being sold through no other source. It is priced at £14.99, plus £2.95 postage and packaging. Simon has published an article outlining the content: 'Secrets to successful stockpicking
