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Check out of Millennium & Copthorne

The hotelier has seen revenue per available room, a key performance metric, decline in recent months and its dividend is under review ahead of cash flows turning negative
September 22, 2016

There's nothing like treating yourself to a stay in a nice hotel, but we'd suggest there might be better places to accommodate your investments than Millennium & Copthorne (MLC). The company boasts sites across Europe, Asia and the US, but there are some lumps in the mattress that we believe should put investors off bedding down in the stock.

IC TIP: Sell at 436p
Tip style
Growth
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Currency tailwind
  • Global presence
Bear points
  • Dividend under review
  • Declining room revenues
  • Concentrated share ownership
  • Negative free cash flow expected

A major issue is the negative trend that has emerged in revenue per available room (RevPAR), a key industry performance metric. Group RevPAR for the year to December 2015 fell 1.3 per cent on a constant currency basis and 3.7 per cent on a like-for-like basis to £71.98 due to tough conditions in Asia and weak trading in key cities. The final quarter of 2015 was particularly painful for the company, with RevPAR down 4.1 per cent partly due to weak performance in London, New York and Singapore. And it hasn't got any better since, with RevPAR down 4.2 per cent on the same basis to £67.91 in the half-year to 30 June.

 

 

The group is trying to arrest this decline by investing in its hotels and building new ones, but this will dent cash flows and profits in the coming years. Plans to spend £290m on construction of hotels and £130m on refurbishments in London hotels are expected to mean negative free cash flow over the next two years. What's more, the closure of some of the group's most profitable hotels will dent margins. Management did say at the half-year results that it was reviewing the timing and scope of work in London, though, which could be seen as a positive - not least because it would reduce capital expenditure and potentially shore up the dividend. Management announced in August that its shareholder payouts were under review, even though it reported dividend cover of three times at its full-year results. The final dividend of 4.34p in 2015 was under half the 11.5p in 2014, though.

Followers of the stock may also have been hoping its sale of The Glyndebourne in Singapore a few years ago would herald more asset sales, thus realising the value of its property portfolio, which some argue isn't fully reflected in the share price. But this is looking increasingly unlikely, with analysts at Berenberg saying there is little chance of a change in strategy due to management's "dogmatic stance".

There's also a concentrated share ownership structure, with City Developments Limited owning roughly 60 per cent of the shares. CDL's executive chairman is Kwek Leng Beng, who is chairman of the board and nomination committee at Millennium. While Mr Beng has been a constant for some time, the group is well known for its quick turnover of chief executives and the current boss, Aloysius Lee, is due to leave in January after two years at the post.

MILLENNIUM & COPTHORNE (MLC)
ORD PRICE:436pMARKET VALUE:£1.42bn
TOUCH:434-436p12-MONTHHIGH:546pLOW: 360p
FORWARD DIVIDEND YIELD:2.1%FORWARD PE RATIO:19
NET ASSET VALUE:774pNET DEBT:23%

Year to 31 DecTurnover (£bn)Pre-tax profit (£m)*Earnings per share (p)*Dividend per share (p)
20131.0629552.313.6
20140.8316128.513.6
20150.8515228.36.4
2016*0.8313623.19.2
2017*0.8413723.49.3
% change+1+1+1+1

Normal market size: 1,000

Matched bargain trading

Beta: 0.38

*Berenberg forecasts, adjusted PTP and EPS figures