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Market Outlook: Australia’s record fine

Double amount set aside
June 4, 2018

Australia’s biggest bank, Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has agreed to pay a A$ 700 million fine to settle money-laundering charges, Reuters reports this morning.  This follows investigations into widespread misconduct over several years by the big 4 banks.  The bank admitted to breaching money-laundering and terror financing rules on 53,750 occasions, while suspicious transactions were not reported and monitoring processes failed.  The bank had factored in a maximum penalty of A$ 375 million.

Elections in Slovenia this weekend, where the 1.7 million electors had to choose between 25 different parties, saw the right-wing anti-immigration Democratic Party, led by ex-PM Janez Jansa, win the most seats with 24.4 per cent of the vote.  In second place, with 12.6 per cent was the anti-establishment List of Marjan Sarec party, while the outgoing PM’s Modern Centre Party got 9.8 per cent.

DAX 30

We have drawn in the neckline of a potential head-and-shoulders top that’s been building since early 2017.  Oscillators and other technical measures are neutral at the moment.  Stories doing the rounds today that the French head of Italy’s UniCredit bank is looking to merge with France’s Societé Generale.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny short at 13145; stop above 13050.  Target 12400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Short at 12935; stop above 13050.  Target 12000.

FTSE 100

Last week’s hanging man following the shooting star at a record high adds weight to our view that we may have just put in a top to the broadening formation that has been building since early 2017.  Note the commodity channel index might be about to turn down – though other oscillators are still bullish.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:   Tiny short at 7855; stop well above 7800.  Target 7400.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Small short at 7799; stop well above 7900.  First target 7400.

S&P 500

No momentum in this market and some US commentators are concerned that the Dow and S&P are lagging well behind gains made by the Nasdaq in May.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Short at 2725; stop above 2745.  Target 2625.

 

POSITION TAKER:   Small short at 2720; stop above 2755.  Target 2620.

BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

Just a tiny doji/hammer type candle last week bang on trend line support.  Our idea that an interim low might be in the making is supported by the commodity channel index which is trying to turn positive.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Tiny long at 1.3275; stop below 1.3240.  Target 1.3800.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New small long on Friday’s close at 1.3350; stop below 1.3170.  Target 1.4200.

EURO/US DOLLAR

A weekly hammer on trend line support when the euro was oversold just ahead of a 50 per cent retracement suggests a market trying to put in an interim low.

 

SHORT TERM TRADER:  Small long at 1.1685; stop below 1.1500.  Target 1.2000.

 

POSITION TAKER:  New long at 1.1660; stop below 1.1600.  Target 1.2400.

GOLD

A second consecutive week consolidating under the 1310 area should have added to bearish pressure, but hasn’t, really.    

                            

SHORT TERM TRADER:  New tiny short at 1294; stop above 1310.  Target 1265.

 

POSITION TAKER:  Square.

Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage.  She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.