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Can SSP shares climb much higher?

How food-on-the-go specialist SSP stacks up against travel retailer WH Smith
April 25, 2019

A few weeks ago I wrote about WH Smith’s (SMWH) travel retail business and liked a lot about it. Compared with the challenges of the UK high street, having captive customers in places such as railway stations and airports tends to lead to higher sales per store and higher profits. I think the business model has a lot of attractions for investors.

 

The business

SSP (SSPG) is a play on a similar theme to WH Smith’s travel business, with a similar business model. The big difference is that it gets its sales from a different mix of customers and products. In 2018, 64 per cent of its sales came from airports and 31 per cent from railway stations. Unlike WH Smith, it has a limited presence in motorway service stations and hospitals.

The other difference is that it makes its money from just selling food and drink. It manages a portfolio of 500 different brands, which are tailored to each individual travel location. It operates concessions for leading brands such as Starbucks, Burger King, Yo Sushi and Leon, as well as having its own brands, including Upper Crust – which sells baguette sandwiches – and Ritazza coffee.

 

 

The UK remains the biggest source of operating profits (£89.5m), just ahead of Europe (£79.5m). In recent years the company has expanded in North America, Asia and South America through a combination of winning new contracts and acquisitions. The company currently has a presence in 33 countries.

 

Region

Sales (£m)

Operating profit (£m)

Margin

Sites

Units

UK

798.1

89.5

11.2%

130

570

Europe

971.7

79.5

8.2%

280

960

North America

436.3

27.7

6.3%

30

300

Rest of the World

358.8

35.7

9.9%

60

780

Central

 

-37.2

   

Total

2564.9

195.2

7.6%

500

2610

Source: Annual report

 

The airport business is based in 140 airports. It has higher gross profit margins – more on this later – than railway concessions, but has to pay higher concession fees as well. The concession contracts tend to last five to eight years in Europe, but are generally longer in North America at 10-16 years.

Railway concessions typically last 10 years before they need to be renegotiated. They also tend to be less profitable than airport concessions. Even though railway stations tend to have a lot more passengers, they don’t tend to stay there very long before catching a train and therefore tend to spend less money. SSP’s key rail markets are in the UK, France and Germany.

In return for being granted a concession, SSP pays a concession fee to the station or airport owner, which is usually based on a percentage of sales subject to a minimum fee. The company also has to spend money fitting out the retail outlet with fixtures and fittings and equipment.

Competition for sites is understandably fierce given the profits that can be made. However, barriers to competition do exist. This is a business where good long-term relationships with landlords count for a lot, as the landlord is unlikely to throw a tenant out if they have been a good and reliable source of income. SSP has been good at renewing its concession contracts when they expire.

 

 

Business performance

The business has performed well over the past five years and has more than doubled its operating profits. However, the numbers throw up some interesting issues, which I will look at further.

 

Year

Sales (£m)

Operating profit (£m)

Money invested (£m)

FCF (£m)

Operating margin

ROCE

FCF margin

Capital turnover

2014

1827.1

88.5

793.2

33.9

4.8%

11.2%

1.9%

2.3

2015

1832.9

97.4

795.2

55.9

5.3%

12.2%

3.0%

2.3

2016

1990.3

121.4

915.2

62.1

6.1%

13.3%

3.1%

2.2

2017

2379.1

162.9

998.1

108.3

6.8%

16.3%

4.6%

2.4

2018

2564.9

195.2

1005

86.4

7.6%

19.4%

3.4%

2.6

 

A positive sign is that sales growth has been pretty good. The company has been able to eke out sales growth from its existing concessions in the 3 per cent range. During the past couple of years there has been a significant boost from new contract wins – particularly in the US and emerging markets – and this trend has continued into 2019. Acquisitions have also helped. What’s good is that most of the growth is coming from organic sources – like-for-like (LFL) sales and new units.

 

Year %

LFL

New contracts

2014

3.3

0.7

2015

3.7

0.6

2016

3

1.7

2017

3.1

6

2018

2.8

5.1

Source: Company reports

 

The other big driver of profit growth has been a significant improvement in profit margins. Investors probably don’t spend enough time looking at gross profit margins in my opinion, but calculated correctly and simply – revenue less the cost of inventories expensed – they can tell you a great deal about the strength of a business.

SSP’s gross profit margin is very high at over 70 per cent and has been improving. However, concession fees have been taking a bigger chunk of revenues as the business has moved more towards airport locations over railway stations. Labour costs and overheads have been well controlled in order to offset this.

As a result, operating margins have increased. Bear in mind that depreciation has been helpful to margins in 2018 as SSP has been operating some units in the US before they have been redeveloped and so benefiting from the absence of closure costs and higher depreciation costs.

 

SSP % of sales

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Gross profit

66.5

67

68

69.4

70.2

Labour

29.7

29.6

29.2

28.9

28.7

Concession fees

16.5

17

17.6

18.4

19.1

Overheads

11.3

11.1

11.2

11.3

11

Depreciation

4.1

4

4

4

3.8

Operating margin

4.8

5.3

6.1

6.8

7.6

Source: Company report

 

The one possible area of perceived weakness is in the generation of free cash flow (FCF), but I don’t think this is anything to worry about. As the business has grown, it has become more capital intensive due to the costs of opening new stores.

It is good at converting its operating profit into operating cash flow due to generally good working capital management (selling its stock before it has to pay for it) but a growing chunk of that cash flow has been ploughed back into new assets. This is a good thing as it fuels future sales, profits and cash flow growth. I do not think that rising capex is a sign of underdepreciation and overstated profits.

 

Year

Operating profit

Operating cash flow

Conversion

Capex

Capex/operating cash flow

Depreciation & amortisation

Capex/Dep

2014

88.5

177.2

200.2%

76.2

43.0%

75.7

1.0

2015

97.4

179.4

184.2%

81.8

45.6%

72.9

1.1

2016

121.4

208.5

171.7%

104.3

50.0%

78.8

1.3

2017

162.9

280.2

172.0%

116

41.4%

95.5

1.2

2018

195.2

310.1

158.9%

156.6

50.5%

97.7

1.6

Source: Company report

 

Return on capital employed (ROCE) looks good at19.4 per cent, but this excludes the impact of rented stores where the assets are still off balance sheet – this will change in 2019. Adjusting for these assets is not straightforward due to the temporary length of concessions. However, if investors are valuing the profits on the basis of concessions being retained – as many will – then valuing the concession assets on that basis would bring down ROCE considerably and perhaps halve the number.

My estimates of rent-adjusted ROCE based on multiplying the annual rent bill by seven and adding interest on that number at 7 per cent to operating profits is shown below. I appreciate, though, that in this instance the calculation is complicated and should be seen as a rough-and-ready estimate.

Year

Rents (£m)

Cap lease at 7x (£m)

Adj money invested(£m)

Adj profits (£m)

Adj ROCE

2014

301.8

2112.6

2905.8

236

8.1%

2015

311.6

2181.2

2976.4

250

8.4%

2016

349.6

2447.2

3362.4

293

8.7%

2017

438

3066

4064.1

378

9.3%

2018

489.6

3427.2

4432.2

435

9.8%

Source: Company report/Investors Chronicle

 

Can it keep on growing?

Rail and air travel passenger numbers are not immune to economic downturns, but have proved to be reasonably resilient to the ups and downs of the world business cycle. UK rail has seen quite soft passenger numbers over the past year or so and might not grow that much in the short term, but in the longer term increased congestion and the growth in high-speed rail across Europe should be helpful to growing sales and profits.

The long-term outlook for air travel remains fairly bullish, especially in Asia and Africa where people’s disposable incomes are expected to keep increasing. In more developed markets the continued growth of low-cost carriers is supportive.

A more general trend is the increased check-in times now commonplace at airports across the world. This tends to mean that passengers are spending more time in the airport, which could lead them to spend more while there and to buy food and drink to consume on the plane. That said, operating concessions airside – the other side of security – is more complicated for SSP due to checks on staff and the absence of nearby storage and kitchen facilities in some locations.

SSP – and WH Smith – still have a very small slice of the global travel retail market and SSP’s reputation as a trusted operator augurs well for it winning new contracts across the world. Acquisitions should not be ruled out. The company should therefore have a decent chance of growing its sales and profits over the next few years.

 

Forecasts and valuation

This is what City analysts seem to be factoring into their forecasts at the moment.

 

SSP forecasts

Year (£m)

2019

2020

2021

Turnover

2,742.40

2,883.60

3,036.40

Ebitda

321.5

345.1

368.8

Ebit

214.6

231.2

249.9

Pre-tax profit

202

218.2

239.9

Post-tax profit

132.6

143.8

155.6

EPS (p)

28.7

31.5

34.4

Dividend (p)

11.7

12.8

14

Capex

149.6

152

156.6

Free cash flow

129.5

164.2

158.4

Net borrowing

446.1

397.7

339.4

NAV

399.3

519.5

-

Like for like sales growth %

2.6

2.8

2.7

Source: SharePad 

 

Debt levels have gone up quite a lot over the past couple of years as the company has paid out a couple of big special dividends, but they are not excessive.

SSP is a decent business with many desirable characteristics, but its shares come with a high price tag of 23 times one-year rolling forecast EPS at 714p. That’s not terrible long-term value, but I struggle to see how the shares can move much higher in the short term unless profit forecasts are upgraded.

In my opinion, travel retail is a good theme to invest in. I like SSP, but see WH Smith as a better play due to its potential in UK hospitals, the Far East and US airport markets. Its more diverse product mix and higher profit margins are added attractions.