European exceptionalism? Led by a rebound in France and Germany, business activity in the Eurozone picked up sharply in July, whilst the dogged British shopper has lifted UK retail sales back to pre-Covid levels. At the same time, US jobless claims unexpectedly rose amid a surge in cases which is being replicated in many other large economies, but not so much in Europe. Could Europe and the UK be handling the reopening phase of the pandemic better, and does this suggest economic outperformance? The obvious answer is that it’s not that simple - more on this below.
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