A Ben Graham recovery play

In the latest interim accounts, the group reported £33.9mn of negative valuation movements in its listed holdings, offset in part by £8mn of foreign currency gains due to sterling weakness against the US dollar. However, with cash of £131mn backing up 88 per cent of Arix’s market capitalisation of £149mn, this means that a £37.5mn listed portfolio of 18 Nasdaq stocks, £56.2mn unquoted portfolio, and £1.9mn of other investments, are in the price for 80 per cent below their combined carrying valuations at 30 June 2022.

Of course, investors may be concerned that Arix’s unlisted holdings are being overvalued. However, chief executive Robert Lyne points out that they are valued at cost or the most recent externally-priced funding round, and then referenced to current public valuations of comparable companies, where applicable, to ensure that valuations remain robust in the context of the decline in public biotech markets over the last 12 months. There is even hidden value.

Exploit Arix’s valuation anomaly

• Net asset value falls from £255mn to £228mn (176p a share) in first half of 2022
• £25mn net downward portfolio movement due to decline in public biotech markets
• Cash of £131mn (101p a share) underpins 88 per cent of Arix’s market capitalisation
• Investee company Disc Medicine to merge with Gemini Therapeutics

A good example of the valuation process is Arix’s valuable 8.8 per cent stake (worth £25.3m) in Artios,, a private company that is developing precision medicines for the treatment of cancer. Artios has attracted the attention of big pharma, having entered a research collaboration with Novartis to discover next-generation DNA damage response targets to enhance its radioligand therapies (‘Five investment company bargains’ 8 April 2021).

The closest listed comparable to Artios is $500mn market capitalisation Repare Therapeutics (RPTX:NSQ), a Nasdaq-quoted clinical-stage precision oncology company, which has a 44 per cent higher valuation even though Lyne believes Artios has more advanced programmes. Artios raised $153mn in an oversubscribed funding round last summer, so is well funded, and expects to announce data from its Phase 1b dose expansion study in the first half of 2023. Lyne also points out that Arix’s portfolio companies collectively raised over $776mn of funding last year, so are financed to progress to their respective clinical data points, potentially important catalysts for future valuation uplifts.

Sensibly, the board are taking a prudent approach, having exited public positions where the directors no longer had confidence that the companies could deliver the superior returns targeted, and deliberately being cautious about making new private investments. Instead, they have turned their attention to the value in listed companies, focusing on those developing novel therapeutics that are of interest to large pharmaceutical companies, and which have scope to generate positive clinical data in the medium-term.

As part of this strategy, Arix has created a small Public Opportunities Portfolio (POP) of 12 Nasdaq holdings, investing £14.5mn in the first half this year. These businesses are funded through to their milestones, thus reducing the risk of dilutive new fundraisings, and announced five positive data read-outs in the first half of 2022, which has underpinned their valuations. This small portfolio is now showing a profit, reversing a small decline in the first half.

Note One: Simon recommended tendering 30 per cent of holdings in Vietnam Holdings at US$4.4528 (322.3p) a share, and tendering 3.9 per cent in the excess application ('Exploiting a tender offer', 4 August 2021), with a view to buying back the tendered shares at the lower market price (284p offer price on 13 and 14 September 2021) when the cash distribution was made during the week of 13 September 2021. Total return reflects these transactions which have reduced the entry point to 188.3p a share.

Source: London Stock Exchange

Arix’s deep share price discount to book value also ignores the fact that there has been a strong recovery in the value of some of its larger listed holdings since the half-year end. For instance, investee company Aura Biosciences (US:AURA) listed its shares at $14 on Nasdaq last autumn. The holding was valued at £20mn at the end of last year, and £17.6mn at 30 June 2022. However, Aura’s stock price has rallied 30 per cent to $18.36 in the past 10 weeks, valuing the holding at £22.9mn (17.6p a share), and adding 4p a share to Arix’s last reported NAV per share.

Aura is a clinical-stage oncology company that is developing a novel technology platform based on virus-like drug conjugates to target and destroy cancer cells selectively, while activating the immune system to create long lasting anti-tumour immunity. It has made encouraging progress this year, presenting updated safety results that support the value of its technology in patients with early choroidal melanoma. The company is on track with its Phase 2 suprachoroidal study and a final decision on route of administration will be made later this year.

Moreover, another holding, Disc Medicine, a clinical-stage company focused on developing novel therapies to treat serious and debilitating hematologic disorders, is merging with Gemini Therapeutics (NSQ:GMTX) in an all-stock transaction. The enlarged group will focus on advancing Disc’s pipeline of hematology programmes. Disc has secured commitments from a syndicate of healthcare investors, including Arix, for a $53.5mn concurrent financing which means that the merged group will have cash of $175mn to advance Disc’s pipeline through multiple clinical studies. It also provides a cash runway into 2025. Last autumn, Arix invested £8.1mn in Disc Medicine and the stake was valued in its interim accounts at £9.1mn.

Arix’s share price is little changed since I last updated my portfolio (‘2021 Bargain Portfolio Review’, 17 February 2022’), and I maintain the view that bottom fishers should be well rewarded buying at these levels. Buy.

Simon Thompson was named Journalist of the Year at the 2022 Small Cap Awards.

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