Brickability demonstrates agility

When compared with peers, Brickability (BRCK) looks like an island of calm in an ocean of tumult.

As peers have warned about weakening earnings given the housing market slowdown, the building products group posted a solid set of results and remained upbeat about its prospects of hitting expectations in its current year, for which house broker Cenkos Securities is forecasting only a slight (1.8 per cent) decline in adjusted pre-tax profit to £39.6mn.

In theory, Brickability should have been more vulnerable to a downturn than brickmakers such as Forterra (FORT) and Ibstock (IBST), given that it imports bricks and therefore incurs additional transportation costs. Forterra said last week that while demand for bricks had slumped by around 31 per cent in the first five months of the year, imports had fallen at a faster rate.

Yet Brickability chair John Richards argued that brick imports, which made up 20 per cent of the market last year, have some defensive qualities. Most bricks made in UK factories are wire cut but planners in many parts of the south of England insist on the use of bricks moulded from soft mud to blend with the vernacular. These make up around 90 per cent of imports.

“Unless planners suddenly have a change of heart... that would still give [imports] a good foundation,” Richards said.

Moreover, despite its name, Brickability has been diversifying via acquisitions since its August 2019 IPO, with the Taylor Maxwell timber and facades business bought two years ago being the biggest. Although it proved to be a slight drag on margins as timber prices fell, these deals have reduced the company's reliance on the housing market. Brickability derived 80 per cent of its revenue from housing at the time of its float, but this has since fallen to 50 per cent, Richards said.

Higher mortgage rates have weighed on prices across the sector and Brickability's shares now sit close to a two-year low, some 15 per cent below their listing price. Cenkos argued in a note that they “remain fundamentally undervalued”, given a forward price/earnings ratio of 5.5 and an anticipated dividend yield of 6.2 per cent. The shares also trade at a 50 per cent discount to peers, according to FactSet.

This looks like great value to those who believe in the long-term prospects of the UK’s housing market, but in the short term the risk is demand will remain subdued and earnings potential under pressure. Hold.

Last IC View: Hold, 70p, 28 Nov 2022