- China edges towards lifting restrictions
- Oil continues to drop
- UK house prices fall at fastest pace since financial crisis
Chinese authorities moved to relax all kinds of restrictions, accelerating a move to end zero covid policies... this indicates that a full exit is going to occur in early 2023 rather than in the second half as detailed in our recent Watchlist forecasts, to follow. Good for risk you would think but I feel a lot of this is now discounted by the market… no relief for oil which has sunk to a fresh YTD low. The market is going to be even tighter next year and it’s hard to fathom why it’s dropping so much.
Mixed start to trade for European equities; London up a bit, the rest flat to negative at the open. Stocks on Wall Street fell for a fourth day, the S&P 500 dropping 1.44 per cent to 3,941, while the Nasdaq dropped 2 per cent. Markets want to go higher but everyone is looking at inflation and wondering whether it’s going to be far stickier than markets currently price… (hint: I am sure it will be).
Negativity creeping in... MS: “The downtrend from the beginning of the year remains in place, and in light of our team’s sharply negative outlook for earnings next year, they see risk-reward here as poor, and they recommend taking profits before the Bear returns in earnest.” GS on European equities: “We expect 2023 to prove tougher after the resilience in earnings this year.”
Rates cycle ending?
Bank, O Canada. An aggressive cycle of rate hikes may be nearing its end, but the BoC will still need to raise rates today.
ECB's Constantinos Herodotou: “There will be more rate hikes but we are very near neutral rate.” I don’t think the ECB knows what the neutral rate is... forecasts still way too short on inflation next year as they stick to the idea of it being transitory. Stickier than they think.
UK house prices slump
UK house prices fell at the fastest pace in 14 years... underlining the predicament the Bank of England is in as it heads into next year with rates hikes likely to pressure the housing market still further. The problem is that if the Bank does the kind of hiking that the Fed has been doing in order to tame inflation, it will crash the housing market. That’s why it’s likely to begin easing some time next year as the full extent of the recession is felt.
See also:
How far will house prices fall?
Global housing downturn - the markets most at risk
And finally, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, said cryptos are like “pet rocks”. LOL the guy is so funny and right.
Neil Wilson is the Chief Market Analyst at Finalto
