Data today from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) showed that 65 per cent of London-based estate agents saw property prices fall in April, the weakest reading since February 2009 – and they expected them to continue to do so for much of this year. It tallies with data from the Halifax earlier this week which showed nationally UK house prices fell 3 per cent in April. Data from Savills underlines the trend, with London land prices falling 2 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 for a total 12 per cent drop over the last 3 years.
Today’s MPC meeting at the Bank of England is expected to produce no change in interest rates – despite having telegraphed a rise for months, with arguments built around money market yield curves. The Quarterly Inflation Report will no doubt have been impacted by awful weather. Over in New Zealand this morning new RBNZ bank governor Adrian Orr hinted that rates would remain stuck at a record low 1.75 per cent for ‘a considerable period of time’.
DAX 30
Overbought, stretched, and tiny daily ranges make for a scary combination. Now German carmaker BMW says it will recall 312,000 British vehicles because they are likely to stall completely.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
FTSE 100
Gosh! That comes as a big surprise. Now the index is as overbought as it was at the record high.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Tiny short at 7580; stop above 7710. Target 7100.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
S&P 500
Bouncing to the top of the massive triangle that has dominated this year, yet still just below the most recent interim high, on weak bullish momentum.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Small short at 2689; stop above 2725. Target 2580.
POSITION TAKER: Short at 2673; stop above 2725. First target 2560.
BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR
Still oversold with yesterday’s dragonfly doji adding to a picture of a market trying to form an interim base.
SHORT TERM TRADER: New long at 1.3545; stop below 1.3400. Target 1.4100.
POSITION TAKER: Small long at 1.3565; stop below 1.3400. Target 1.4300.
EURO/US DOLLAR
A dragonfly doji here too and oversold. Italian President Sergio Mattarella has given the two populist parties 24 hours to form a coalition government (having failed five times over the last two months). The risk of fresh elections is impacting the value of Italian sovereign bonds, most of which are held by the nation’s banks and the ECB.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
GOLD
Desperately trying to cling to the 1310 level with a large hammer candle again yesterday following Monday’s dragonfly doji. Though usually seen as a store of wealth, precious metals are sold first in times of great stress as they are most likely to find a buyer.
SHORT TERM TRADER: Tiny long at 1307; stop quite a bit below 1300. Target 1330.
POSITION TAKER: Square.
Nicole Elliott is a long-standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has taken over the IC’s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.
