The S&P 500 is down less than 5 per cent for the year and is 40 per cent above its pandemic trough, whilst the forward price-to-earnings multiple has risen to a two-decade high at 22.4. US GDP is seen falling by an astonishing 52.8 per cent in the second quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed. Whilst this number is always up for a lot of debate, it’s clear the contraction in the second quarter is going to be massive. Something has to give - but perhaps not yet. In the UK, dire housing market data has failed to dent equity market sentiment.
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